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A Trillion Dollars for the Banks: How About a Second Opinion?

by: Dean Baker, t r u t h o u t | Perspective

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Secretary of Treasury Timothy Geithner waits for President Barack Obama. (Photo: Reuters Pictures)

    Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner wants to have the government lend up to a trillion dollars to hedge funds, private equity, funds and the banks themselves to clear their books of toxic assets. The plan implies a substantial subsidy to the banks. It is likely to result in the disposal of these assets at far above market value, with the government picking up the losses.

    As much as we all want to help out the Wall Street bankers in their hour of need, taxpayers may reasonably ask whether this is the best use of our money. After all, the $1 trillion that is being set aside for this latest TARP variation is equal to 300 million SCHIP kid years. Congress has had heated debates over sums that were a small fraction of this size. To give another useful measuring stick, the Geithner plan could fund 1 million of the Woodstock museums that were the main prop of Senator McCain's presidential campaign.

    The core problem is that many of our big banks are bankrupt. If they had to acknowledge the losses that they have incurred on their housing related loans (and increasing their loans in commercial real estate) Citigroup, Bank of America, and many other large banks would be insolvent. Thus far, they have avoided reality by keeping these loans on their books at inflated prices.

    The Geithner plan is an effort to rescue the banks by using government funding to prop up the price of these bad loans to levels that will allow the banks to stay solvent. It is not clear that the plan is big enough to accomplish this goal, but that is the basic intention. If it doesn't work, then presumably Geithner will come out with another TARP permutation that involves giving the banks even more money.

    There is an alternative. Rather than using government money to keep them alive, we could force the banks to go through a type of managed bankruptcy process like the one that is currently being proposed for General Motors and Chrysler.

    Geithner has supposedly ruled out the bankruptcy option because when he, along with Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke, tried letting Lehman Brothers go under last fall, it didn't turn out very well. Of course, it is not necessary to go the route of an uncontrolled bankruptcy that Geithner and Co. pursued with Lehman.

    The government could set up an arranged bankruptcy under which creditors have accepted conditions in advance. While this may not be easy to negotiate, the government does have enormous bargaining power in pursuing such a deal. The creditors (other than insured deposits, which will be paid in full) of these banks may end up with nothing if the government just let the banks sink.

    The prospect of even an arranged bankruptcy of a major bank will undoubtedly shake up markets, but many safeguards have been put in place since the Lehman collapse. If the stock market goes down for a few weeks or months, who cares? Running the economy to serve the stock market is a sure recipe for disaster; if President Obama fixes the economy, the stock market will do just fine in the long run.

    Anyhow, the Geithner crew insists that there are no alternatives to his plan; we have to just keep giving hundreds of billions of dollars to the banks. Perhaps Geithner is right. But before we throw such huge sums away, further enriching the bankers who wrecked the economy, maybe we should get a second opinion.

    Suppose that Congress appropriated a modest chunk of money to have independent economists put together teams to construct alternative plans. Why not give M.I.T. professor Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the IMF, $5 million to hire a crew to outline his preferred path? Congress could give Joe Stiglitz, a Nobel Prize winner and one-time chief economist to President Clinton, who is also a harsh critic of the Geithner plan, a similar sum to put together his own team.

    These economists could develop their best plans and put them out for public consumption. Geithner's crew can then tell us why their plans are unworkable and we must instead hand over the money to banks.

    Given how much money Geithner wants to spend - putting it in the hands of the folks that brought on this economic crisis - it would seem appropriate to first examine all the alternatives. After all, we could find out what our options are in this case for the price of just a few A.I.G. executive bonuses. That has to be a good deal in anyone's book.

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Dean Baker is a macroeconomist and co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, DC. He previously worked as a senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute and an assistant professor at Bucknell University. He is a regular Truthout columnist and a member of Truthout's Board of Advisers.

Comments

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It is time for Geithner and

It is time for Geithner and Summers to be replaced, I believe. These two could be the ruin of Obama's plan for change. The idea of getting Stiglitz involved in this process is key. If any subsidies should go to anyone, it should be to the American Worker. How about a $1 trillion dollar bailout to every one American worker. Divide by the one hundred million workers in this country who are US citizens, and let us save or spend the amount: $10,000.00. $10K right now in my pocket could really help. I could go on a vacation this summer, pay for a bathroom remodel, and still have a $2-3 thousand left over to spend and help stimulate the economy.

second opinion is a very

second opinion is a very good proposal that should apply also to banks in my country.Having lived through the gyrations of United Bank of California, IOS' Bernie Kornfeld just to name a few, I could not agree more.Indeed, should these banks go under it would put many of their financial artists out of work. But new banks or new financial institutes would emerge, again in need of people

Geithner is out of his depth

Geithner is out of his depth β€” he's acting like a mouthpiece for Wall Street instead of a public official. "His" plan (or, rather, "their" plan) is simply to re-inflate the bubble. He should go, along with Bernanke. Insolvent banks should go into bankruptcy, and operated in the public interest.

I agree we need to employ

I agree we need to employ this second opinion stratagem. There is far too much at risk to simply keep shoveling resources into the financial sector. I know workers aren't politically connected or economically powerful but if our system doesn't start to address their needs we'll end up with a far worse reactionary swing to the right in the next election cycle.

I just want a shmizzling

I just want a shmizzling $500,ooo, just a small potato of half a million to bail me out! I would pay myself a $400,000 bonus for the fabulous job of getting myself into an insolvent mess and would pay off my debts at 25 cents to the dollar. Geithner, your great!

If you didn't catch the most

If you didn't catch the most recent edition of Bill Moyers Journal, a must-see is his interview with Bill Black (no relation), one of the regulators who had to wade through the muck of the S&L scandals.

If Consumer spending makes

If Consumer spending makes up 71% of the US Economy ( which is also supposedly the ENGINE OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY ) does anyone have the numbers crunched yet on how much $1 Trillion in Consumer spending might do to life the MAJORITY of Americans out of Recession-Peril..?..... AND, while you're at it, could we get a send opinion on---- '''WHY GEITHNER?'''...?

Let the largest banks fail.

Let the largest banks fail. Prosecute the criminals! If Americans go along with this plan, I can only think they're either brainwashed and mind controlled or total rubes.

O well that is what you get

O well that is what you get for electing Obama. You need to realize that Obama placed alot of trust on such people like Geithner and Summers. This what you have voted and what you will recieve the government is NOT the answer to all of our ills. It is up to US to make the difference on deciding policy not the government and all of its people to dicate what is best for the country.... Sheesh people get a grip. ( I did not vote for Obama nor for McCain but infact I voted for a third party namely Libertarian Party not the two dominate factions of the country. And I am also not a white person but an Asian American.)

See William Greider's

See William Greider's interview with Bill Moyers at the pbs.org web site. This is another of our realists, the one who best echoes my own opinions. Just say no. NOT ONE PENNY MORE to liars, cheaters, and thieves -- who have been swindling We the People for the past three to four decades and are now EXTORTING from us money we don't even HAVE! Since when did compiling wrongs add up to a right? There is no logic in this. It is time for American Revolution II. NOW!

Geithner is running amok.

Geithner is running amok. Both he and Summers should be replaced ASAP.

Why did Obama pick this guy?

Why did Obama pick this guy?

Give a million dollars to

Give a million dollars to anyone with a job to retire. They must then spend some of the money to buy a new car and a new house (or pay off their mortgage). This would create many many jobs, stop the bleeding of the car industry, support all the suppliers to the car industry, fix the mortgage loan problem, restart housing construction and, if many of those folks are like me, make me give some of that money to my children who are either unemployed or trying to stay in college. Think of all that Trickle Down. I would probably donate to charity and do volunteer work, too.

This sounds like a plausible

This sounds like a plausible idea, provided thorough transparency is in place for any more bailouts or funding and stiff regulation is enforced. These banks also need to be investigated for fraudulent practices and proper legal action taken. One problem with the author's suggestion would be the slow pace of 'studies' to determine a better way of managing the crisis. We need to speed up the process and develop an effective, workable thoroughly-assessed strategy.

Although it is easy to agree

Although it is easy to agree with Mr Baker and others about second opinions, more study, the time for action is here. This crisis steadily deepens, impacts more people worldwide every day. And a second opinion will yield to calls for a 3rd and a 4th? I don’t like the loans, but this crisis goes back to late winter 2008 as a crisis. As a problem, it goes back further. But as a solution, the one thing that is lacking is time to study this some more. Best is the enemy of good. Will this work? Who knows, even after the history is written, debate will continue. Conservatives are still debating the benefits of the New Deal some 80 years later. But what cannot be debated is the need for action – some sort of immediate action. And the action needs to have support from at least a few factions; otherwise we may see an economic confederacy spring up in this country.

Unfortunately, "bizzare"

Unfortunately, "bizzare" describes the idea to spend $5 mil. twice to get second opinions. Pretty screwy, eh?............Of course we should let the bankrupt gamblers go broke--another "bizzare" idea because I don't believe they are too big to fail.............This is about POWER, not opinions: people with the POWER to create and spend (give away) this money are doing so............Later, when we get the final taxpayer tab, we shall all suffer the financial equivalent of a heart attack,simultaneously.........Pretty bizzare, huh?

Why is Obama going with a

Why is Obama going with a pair of anti-regulators --hedge fund millionaire Summers and tax delinquent Geithner, I think I know... Obama is simply reading the "President's Play Book." Wall Street runs the government (therefore Larry Summers is your man and not Dean Baker) and the Pentagon runs foreign policy (that's why we have Gates and not Kucinich). Sure the Geithner plan stinks and nationalizing is the way to go but these market fundamentalists will only do it when the pitchforks begin to hurt them.

So, AIG and these other

So, AIG and these other bozos gave out a few hundred million dollars in bonuses to flakes who messed up the economy. That's more millions than the entire population of the country. Yes, give everyone a Million dollars - Tax Free- to blow off their debts, secure their retirements, get their teeth fixed, money for the kid's college, replace the gas guzzler/polluter, get new skills, retire and let some younger person have your job, etc. . .Makes perfect sense to me. Beats giving money to losers who effed it all up in the first place!!

It's fun to pretend that

It's fun to pretend that "our" government will not do whatever they want, the will of the people be damned. But, okay, let's say they won't - the first thing We The People need is a detailed list of all "toxic assets." What are they, who owns them, what were they worth before going toxic, what are they worth now. Then we can go shopping - for example, BoA holds a $500K mortgage on a house now worth $375K. Instead of buying it, we'll split the drop and demand BoA refinance the $375K. If they cut it up and packaged it into a security, they need to unpackage it or eat it. Of course, they'll just throw a few more millions to their favorite pols to continue the Ponziconomy, but this was all pretend anyway...

Black's interview on Moyers

Black's interview on Moyers last week really sizzled. If Black is correct, Geithner & Co. are ignoring law that has been in effect since the days of the S&L debacle. The law requires them to put insolvent financial institutions into receivership PROMPTLY. Instead we just keep handing our money to them, apparently hoping they'll recover and continue to coverup their histories of fraudulent dealings. This is not only crazy, but also ILLEGAL. What I'd like to know is, how can we enforce the law? Somehow it doesn't sound like ACLU's beat. Whose beat is it?

I think this is a brilliant

I think this is a brilliant idea to have a whole team of "others" take on this subject to bailout or not and give the American people and the world another look at possibility and stability in our banks. Fire all bankers at the top who were there and responsible for this sick economy just like GM. Why are we not investigating all of the beginnings of this truly sad greedy group of leaders in the banking world.... because they are covering up the true losses. Let us begin again...

Why not let the banks and

Why not let the banks and insurance companies go belly up, and instead, help the homeless and broke US citizens with the trillion dollars? I think Geithner is helping his friends in high places. A local WA man, along with his nine-year-old daughter in tow, just held up a convienence store to get money to feed his family. This "recession" we are in is a "depression" and the United States government needs to do something about it. How about giving the trillion dollars back to US citizens instead of bailing out the banks and insurance companies?

If I were to do what the

If I were to do what the bankers and brokers have done, I would rightfully be prosecuted for fraud. There would be no "bailout." As one of the taxpayers whose income is going down as a result of the current economic collapse, I oppose one penny of Federal money going to any corporation. The financiers love to preach "social Darwinism" in their opposition to programs to help those who work to overcome individual socioeconomic disadvantages. Let's put economic Darwinism into practice: those corporations that are the fittest should survive on their own merits, while the GM's, Banks of America, Merrill Lynches, and so on should be left to their well-earned fates.

"Why not give M.I.T.

"Why not give M.I.T. professor Simon Johnson, a former chief economist of the IMF, $5 million to hire a crew to outline his preferred path? " Why not? Because then the wrong people might get the money. "There's nothing wrong with charity ... as long as it winds up in your pocket."~Ferengi Rule of Acquisition No. 144

No need to pay $5 million to

No need to pay $5 million to Stiglitz and Johnson. Why not just ask them -- and Krugman, Roubini, Baker and perhaps a couple of others to get together with Geithner and Summers -- and require them to arrive at a consensus. Failing consensus within three days, fire Geithner/Summers on the spot and put the others to work.

I'm convinced this has been

I'm convinced this has been an orchestrated robbery from the beginning ,everything from the inflated oil prices a few months ago to the bail outsThe economy has been ruined and the very top percentage of wealthy people will pick up the pieces .Only after they own everything will things start to improve again. There is a mechanism for failed banks,it is simple you guarantee the accounts and you let the bank fail not throw money at the people who caused the crisis in the first place,these people aren't just making mistakes they are smart and the American people are being robbed.

Oh yes, i am traumatized by

Oh yes, i am traumatized by Obama and his approach of picking the criminals to orchestrate the bailout, to be any part of the solution. What was done is totally illegal. What message does this give, what value does this set for our nation, our future, our kids?Have 'we the people' changed so much? Did we really 'believe in change' so much that we were blindsided by just another story by just another guy from Chicago. Is the Presidents whole worth to our nation simple the color of Obama's skin? Now how can the entire idea of this 'fix' be stopped, or dulled, or even approached with integrity when the President seems unwilling to get the best ideas, get the best brains in the nation to create a fix. Was this not the idea behind Obama? No one looses INTEGRITY this fast. Did he actually have none to begin with? We all wanted a hero so much that we left ourselves open to the crime of the fix. Can we not learn from the Jewish religion still anticipating patiently for the 'Savior' to arrive. They did not take the first guy on a white donkey. We were too needy? Did we fool ourselves?...the only magic will come in the rebuilding AFTER the looting ENDS...after the ending of our 'belief in change'...only then can the light shine through. Let Obama and his fiends feed on the corpse of our nations wealth...it will bring us to the point we need to be at.

I agree with all others

I agree with all others above. It is only common sense. We wouldn't have major surgery without a second opinion, and maybe even a third. Our economy has been undergoing some very major surgery, and it is dying a very painful death. The problem is that we are all suffering from the ramifications of the grief of this death. We are very intimately involved, and we must therefore be involved in the process. If President Obama does not listen to "We The People," he will be a one term president, no matter how popular he is right now, and our country will continue to suffer for years to come from the unnecessary effects of greed, arrogance, and narcissism that has plagued it since Reagan.

Well revelation on the

Well revelation on the hilltop! Like we cain't see sh't 'less we climb to the hilltop and buy a ticket and set ourselves down at the great table. Problem iz, what we c'n see don't count for naught, 'cause countin', apparently, starts at one billion and up. You cain't ante up a billion, you ain't visible. Yeah, sure, the probable shape of a legitimate solution is not hard to discern. They don't care about that, and we , apparently, can't do nothin' about that, and you bub, you are a parasitic "commentator" known professionally as a "journalist" (Nother problem iz: they ain't no newspapers anymore)

If you listen to people

If you listen to people today with greater attention, you will hear things of greater value. Try not to let yourself be distracted by loud and booming voices or people with flashy attitudes. Instead, tune into the people who are quiet -- when they do speak, they may well say something interesting. There is a strong current of compassion in your life right now, and this side of your personality needs to be encouraged. Engage with shy people and you'll catch details others miss.

It is time that the

It is time that the government or we the people take over majority stakes in major banks. The reason? They are technically bankrupt!!! Then start to get rid of the toxic assets fast. Only this way we can avoid a long drawn out depression and the taxpayers have an upside stake in the recovery. It might cost 2 trillion but it is very well worth it. It is time that we stop socializing losses and privatizing profits. Banks have a far too cozy relationship with any administration. It is time for change we can really believe in and this means to "bust the trusts" and to make sure that we will get our money back in a recovery!!!